Well it’s been an interesting start to Trumps Presidency.
Over here in the United Kingdom the public reaction has been well to put it mildly hostile. The Media has been quite frankly negative particularly the major TV stations. The emphasis is on America moving to a protectionism not seen since the 1920’s. Trumps inauguration speech was treated with a sense of fear across the European continent. Perhaps with the exception of the United Kingdom who have moved to befriend Trump following the Brexit vote some 7 months ago. A wise move in my opinion. After all Trump does consider himself half British and is very much an anglophile. A condition we need to nurture for the next 4 years. This can only be good for my country but the road may be a rocky one.
There should be no fear that Trump advocates America 1st. Every leaders first priority should be solely to act in the interest of their country and it’s citizens. He has not been elected to lead the World he has been elected to lead America. Why should anyone expect any less of him? Why has this speech been thought to be America closing in on itself? I actually think the opposite for reasons I will explain
In his 1st few days Trump has issued quite a few Executive Presidential orders. These have become a feature of the medias attacks on him. However it is not uncommon for these orders to be issued. Franklin Delanor Roosevelt was a prime instigator and he is regarded as one of America’s greatest presidents. There are others, look them up, but Obama was not one of them. Maybe the reason they have become controversial.
The latest ban on entry to the United States from 7 countries stands out as controversial as it is seen as an attack on Muslims as all 7 have predominant Muslim populations. They also which seems missed in the Media, are in the main Countries which harbour Islamic fundamentalists and anti American sentiment. The ban is limited to 3 months as I understand it. Whilst I make no judgement on this ban I can understand the reasons behind it. It was after all a campaign promise by candidate Trump and one he was elected on. I do think however it should have had an agreed deferment time to spare all those already in the air or on the way. Not thought through properly but Trump likes to put things in place immediately and then move on to the next problem.
The wall again was a major campaign pledge and we should not be surprised that he is pushing this through. From what I read it looks like the Great wall of China will be copied across the border. If the Chinese could do it 400 years ago surely America can?
The major issue though and one on which I believe Trump will be judged in History is not America First but what he does with Putin and Russia. It has to be a good thing, I believe, to have a go at understanding Putin and Russia’s place in the World. Lets face it Obama never did and his Presidency created or prolonged the instability in the Middle East. His Foreign policy in the middle East and Libya was disastrous for the world although Bush and Blair are primarily to blame.
Putin has seen Russian influence in the World sink. Much of Eastern Europe has fallen under the influence of the West. Many Eastern European countries are now part of the European Union and all now within Nato. We need to accept that Democracy as we see it is not the be all and end all in all parts of this amazing world we live in. We need to accept and live with all different religions and cultures.
The Ukraine over through a Democratically elected President who favoured closer links with Russia. America and the west supported them and their wish to join the European Union and eventually join NATO. One can only guess what Putin thought of this. His annexation of The Crimea was denounced by the West despite an overwhelming wish of the people of The Ukraine to rejoin their Russian colleagues. Ukraine had been an integral of Russia for over 400 years before the break up of the Soviet Union and there remains a large proportion of the Ukraine population who regard themselves as ethnically Russian. No surprise there but not talked about in the West despite it’s adherence of democracy and the will of the people.
Trump rightly regards Putin as a strong leader focusing on Russia and it’s influence on the World stage. Having been to Russia recently my belief is that Putin is a highly respected leader and one who puts Russia first. Putin wants a relationship with Trump of that I have no doubt. Both parties want a deal but both want to be seen to benefitting from a better relationship
Over the next year I expect the following to happen
NATO will be re organised with each country making a 2% contribution to it’s costs. America’s financial contribution will reduce but not it’s commitment to defend the borders. The Press have long focussed on the Baltic States being under threat from Putin’s Russia. Nothing could be further from the truth in my view. An attack upon the Baltic States would be an attack against the European Union as well as Nato and one that would have no benefit for Russia or Mr Putin. Even if I have this wrong Trump could not sit back and let him take them. Whatever Trump is he wants to be seen himself as a strong leader. Putin would only invade if he felt Trump would do nothing. The time for Putin to act would have been under Obama not Trump. There appears to be a degree of respect between Trump and Putin and I expect they will live together in peace
Trump will agree to a deal in Syria initially accepting President Assad in some form of government role. Potentially a coalition government overseen by Russia and supported by other local countries perhaps including Iran with limited involvement from America
The Ukraine will split in two or a settlement reached guaranteeing it’s independence and neutrality. There will be no more push for it to join the West
Trump and Putin will agree to form an alliance to rid the world of ISIS. How they do this remains to be seen but I have no doubt after a settlement has been reached in Syria and possibly Ukraine an all out attack on Syrian and Iraqi occupied territory will commence.
Other issue include America’s relationship with China, revitalising deprived areas in the rust belt of America and taking on the drugs cartels and reducing illegal immigration to the country. A feature for future blogs I think
This President will certainly keep me and the media busy as he rolls out his promises to the Nation and the World